Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:57:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3d9e…5421
weather · 295 markets active 8h ago
0.0score
+$5,475 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,668 · open −$193
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$47,304
Realized+$5,668
Unrealized−$193
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses242 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions32
Markets (closed)275 / 295
History coverage88d
Avg bet$1,453
Trades / day35.9
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 32 History 275 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,401
7 days−$4,401
14 days−$3,910
30 days−$3,910
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $7,308 $7,119 −$189 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $7,518 $6,741 −$777 (-10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $3,738 $4,557 +$819 (+22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $4,746 $4,389 −$357 (-8%)
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 93¢ 98¢ $3,500 $3,714 +$215 (+6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,528 $3,591 +$63 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,854 $3,549 −$305 (-8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,184 $2,163 −$21 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,470 $1,823 +$353 (+24%)
Will Bill Cosby be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 95¢ 99¢ $1,294 $1,343 +$50 (+4%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,081 $1,090 +$9 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,050 $1,029 −$21 (-2%)
Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 94¢ 99¢ $806 $850 +$43 (+5%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $798 $735 −$63 (-8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $630 $651 +$21 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 67¢ 60¢ $670 $605 −$65 (-10%)
Will Tom Brady announce a presidential run before 2027? No 90¢ 92¢ $511 $522 +$11 (+2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $462 $483 +$21 (+5%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $336 $357 +$21 (+6%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? No $372 $335 −$37 (-10%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 64¢ 56¢ $320 $282 −$38 (-12%)
Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? No 91¢ 93¢ $272 $280 +$7 (+3%)
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 85¢ 82¢ $255 $248 −$8 (-3%)
Will Kim Kardashian announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 91¢ 96¢ $207 $217 +$10 (+5%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 55¢ 72¢ $163 $216 +$53 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 11? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 12 $2,055 −$2,055 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Jun 12 $66 −$66 -100%
Fogo FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jun 12 $124 −$124 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jun 12 $1,820 −$1,820 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or higher on March 11? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Fogo FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 12 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 02 $428 +$32 +7%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $410 +$90 +22%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $2,700 +$300 +11%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 02 $4,930 +$70 +1%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 05 $171 −$171 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 26? May 04 $237 $0 +0%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 04 $237 +$63 +27%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 04 $153 +$147 +96%
Joe Kent charged by April 30? May 04 $321 +$40 +12%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 04 $971 +$29 +3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 04 $1,382 +$55 +4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 26 $388 +$2,037 +525%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 11 $1,498 +$51 +3%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 11 $5,051 +$617 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 2? Apr 02 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 2? Apr 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on April 1? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Hillary Clinton charged by March 31? Apr 01 $335 +$4 +1%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $585 +$4 +1%
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31? Apr 01 $749 +$5 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $754 +$2,011 +267%
Will MrBeast hit 118 billion views by March 31? Apr 01 $3,548 +$138 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $4,074 +$78 +2%
Will MrBeast hit 117 billion views by March 31? Apr 01 $5,383 +$42 +1%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 01 $4,813 +$1,061 +22%
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $7,704 +$2,116 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 30? Mar 31 $5 +$15 +335%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C or higher on March 30? Mar 31 $3,211 +$6 +0%
Will Khamenei post 200+ posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 30 $94 +$1 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 27? Mar 30 $285 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 27? Mar 30 $637 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 30? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leavitt say "Illegal Alien" during the next White House Press Bri Mar 27 $11 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C or higher on March 25? Mar 27 $289 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on March 26? Mar 27 $365 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on March 26? Mar 27 $406 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on March 25? Mar 27 $564 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 25? Mar 27 $821 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on March 26 Mar 27 $978 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 73% −$6,469
other 18% +$1,496
world 5% +$4,078
tech 2% +$2,079
crypto 1% +$7,236
economics 0% −$9
politics 0% +$28
sports 0% +$1,438
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $0 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $0 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $0 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $0 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $0 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $0 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $0 8h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $0 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $1 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $0 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $0 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $1 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $1 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $1 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $295 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $2 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $0 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $2 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $0 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $0 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $25 10h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $1 12h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $44 15h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $670 21h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $194 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $601 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $335 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $255 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 13 -66.0% -69.2% 31% 15% -37.0%
≤90d 275 +4.0% -5.9% 88% 9% -6.8%
all 275 +4.0% -5.9% 88% 9% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 9% -6.8%
10% -14.9% 7% -15.7%
15% ← realistic here -23.1% 5% -23.9%
20% -30.7% 4% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47,303.79 · official $47,308.05 (match) · 3500 history records