Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:48:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3D 0x3da1…075d crypto 1700 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$954 (+1%) realized +$955 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate94%1601W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day37.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$376
14 days−$474
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$138
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 584 -1.6% -11.0% 92% 19% -10.6%
≤30d 1071 +0.2% -9.4% 94% 20% -9.6%
≤90d 1699 +0.3% -9.3% 94% 17% -9.7%
all 1699 +0.3% -9.3% 94% 17% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 17% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 1% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$41 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$955
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1601 / 98
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1699 / 1700
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$55
Trades / day37.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1699 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+49%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 42¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Jun 15 $1 −$2 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $135 +$3 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $34 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $44 +$5 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $135 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $57 +$3 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $135 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $135 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $54 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $44 +$6 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $135 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$3 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $52 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $113 +$15 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $42 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$2 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $135 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $135 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $112 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $39 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $44 +$5 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $95 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $135 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $44 +$4 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $6 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $102 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $54 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $135 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $14 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $29 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $44 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $135 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $57 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $14 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $135 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $27 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $135 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $54 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $44 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $41 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $135 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $24 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $28 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $44 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $52 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $113 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.57 · official $1.58 (match) · 3500 history records