Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:03:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3da2…22b6 sports 264 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,059 (+6%) realized +$1,026 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%130W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$281est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$391
14 days+$930
30 days+$1,598
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$978
other 1% −$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +5.5% -4.6% 56% 56% +29.3%
≤30d 95 +15.5% +4.5% 59% 58% +11.2%
≤90d 253 +11.1% +0.5% 50% 49% -2.7%
all 263 +9.2% -1.2% 49% 49% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 49% -4.8%
10% -10.6% 48% -13.9%
15% -19.3% 46% -22.2%
20% -27.2% 40% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$53 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$1,026
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses130 / 133
Est. fees paid−$281
Open positions1
Markets (closed)263 / 264
History coverage92d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Prelims) Nursulton Ruziboev 63¢ 92¢ $70 $103 +$33 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 127 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig Jun 27 $61 +$72 +118%
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 27 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $75 −$74 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $204 +$291 +143%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $152 +$125 +82%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $162 +$71 +44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $101 +$63 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $304 +$99 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $152 +$162 +107%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $42 +$75 +180%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $195 +$126 +64%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $121 +$23 +19%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $76 +$42 +55%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $54 −$53 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $284 +$142 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $200 +$159 +80%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $223 −$220 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $91 +$82 +89%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $81 −$80 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $71 +$49 +68%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $102 +$76 +75%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$53 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $122 +$96 +79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $61 +$37 +60%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $61 +$55 +90%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$69 +68%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $62 +$104 +167%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $71 −$2 -3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $23 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 +$43 +211%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $81 −$80 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$39 +383%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $41 +$42 +103%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $71 +$46 +65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $101 +$87 +86%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $76 +$43 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $42 −$41 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $71 −$71 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $203 +$188 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 63¢ $71 1h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig SELL Tahir Abdullayev 100¢ $133 1h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 40¢ $48 5h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 45¢ $61 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 53¢ $75 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 33¢ $41 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 32¢ $71 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $495 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $204 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $277 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 54¢ $152 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 72¢ $233 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $162 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $164 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 61¢ $101 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $152 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 50¢ $148 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 50¢ $152 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $152 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $315 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 42¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 51¢ $101 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $117 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 35¢ $42 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $321 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 60¢ $195 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 74¢ $144 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 61¢ $121 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 99¢ $118 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 63¢ $76 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.78 · official $102.78 (match) · 477 history records