Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3D 0x3da3…ee99 weather 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$183 (-1%) realized −$184 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate89%79W / 10L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$59
14 days−$154
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% −$122
sports 8% −$68
crypto 4% −$152
politics 3% +$111
other 1% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -5.0% -14.0% 83% 42% -14.0%
≤30d 29 -12.4% -20.7% 79% 24% -14.9%
≤90d 89 -4.5% -13.6% 89% 17% -10.7%
all 89 -4.5% -13.6% 89% 17% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 17% -10.7%
10% -21.8% 6% -19.2%
15% -29.4% 3% -27.0%
20% -36.3% 2% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$89 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized−$184
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses79 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)89 / 92
History coverage57d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 92¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $100 +$11 +11%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $101 +$33 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $100 +$11 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $100 +$11 +11%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $100 +$10 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 6? Jun 08 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 7? Jun 07 $149 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $200 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $175 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $473 +$111 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on May 19? May 22 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 18? May 20 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 19 $202 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on May 17? May 17 $500 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on May 15? May 15 $300 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 15? May 15 $77 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or higher on May 14? May 14 $19 +$11 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 14? May 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 13? May 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on May 14? May 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13? May 13 $38 +$5 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 15? May 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 13? May 13 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 12 $31 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 12 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 12 $101 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 11? May 11 $451 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 11? May 11 $200 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on May 11? May 11 $401 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on May 12? May 10 $41 −$40 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 10? May 10 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 10? May 10 $14 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on May 9? May 09 $200 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $100 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $100 10h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 10h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $50 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $100 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $100 11h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 75¢ $101 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $100 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $100 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $100 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $100 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 9d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 10d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? BUY No 95¢ $100 10d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 7? BUY No 92¢ $5 11d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 7? BUY No 92¢ $23 11d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 7? BUY No 92¢ $25 11d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 7? BUY No 92¢ $0 11d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 7? BUY No 92¢ $47 11d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $105 11d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 7? BUY No 93¢ $49 11d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 6? SELL No 0¢ $0 11d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 6? BUY No 84¢ $50 11d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 6? BUY No 95¢ $100 12d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 6? BUY No 97¢ $100 12d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 6? BUY No 95¢ $200 12d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on June 6? BUY No 95¢ $100 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.68 · official $250.68 (match) · 221 history records