Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$119,681

7 days+$100,542

14 days+$100,542

30 days−$17,790

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox	Atlanta Braves	51¢	38¢	$1,500	$1,103	−$397 (-26%)
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	79¢	0¢	$15,000	$0	−$15,000 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder	Thunder	51¢	0¢	$118,374	$0	−$118,374 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks	Knicks	30¢	0¢	$19,140	$0	−$19,140 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$4,991	+$7,904	+158%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	Jun 12	$2,027	+$1,609	+79%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 11	$3,461	+$5,039	+146%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$8,185	+$105,129	+1284%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$19,540	−$19,140	-98%
Spurs vs. Thunder	May 19	$120,104	−$118,374	-99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies	May 19	$51	+$42	+83%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	May 10	$15,095	−$15,000	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

sports 97% −$41,091

other 3% +$7,904

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	38¢	$4,991	8h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	BUY Hurricanes	55¢	$2,027	9h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox	BUY Atlanta Braves	51¢	$1,522	9h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY Mexico	40¢	$3,461	29h
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	6¢	$1,748	32h
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	8¢	$3,802	32h
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	7¢	$2,327	32h
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	7¢	$308	32h
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	29¢	$9,334	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	31¢	$10,082	3d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	36¢	$124	3d
Spurs vs. Thunder	BUY Thunder	36¢	$403	24d
Spurs vs. Thunder	BUY Thunder	49¢	$43,660	24d
Spurs vs. Thunder	BUY Thunder	52¢	$50,716	24d
Spurs vs. Thunder	BUY Thunder	54¢	$25,324	24d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies	BUY Philadelphia Phillies	54¢	$51	24d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	BUY Khamzat Chimaev	79¢	$15,095	33d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+154.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+313.5%	+274.2%	80%	80%	+231.1%
≤30d	7	+221.5%	+190.9%	71%	71%	-19.8%
≤90d	8	+181.3%	+154.5%	62%	62%	-26.9%
all	8	+181.3%	+154.5%	62%	62%	-26.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+154.5%	62%	-26.9%
10% ← realistic here	+130.2%	62%	-33.9%
15%	+107.9%	62%	-40.2%
20%	+87.5%	62%	-46.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.