Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:30:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3da6…9ac4 other 252 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$331 (-1%) realized −$157 · open −$174
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate42%87W / 118L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day37.7pace
Fees−$161est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$4,009now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days−$535
14 days−$1,042
30 days−$1,639
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$1,204
other 28% +$279
politics 21% −$532
finance 12% +$131
tech 7% −$65
world 2% +$13
weather 1% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -7.6% -16.4% 39% 33% -26.0%
≤30d 179 -5.1% -14.2% 40% 28% -14.4%
≤90d 205 -1.0% -10.5% 42% 30% -12.2%
all 205 -1.0% -10.5% 42% 30% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 30% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 21% -20.6%
15% -26.9% 19% -28.3%
20% -34.0% 19% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$36 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$4,009
Realized−$157
Unrealized−$174
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses87 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$161
Open positions47
Markets (closed)205 / 252
History coverage40d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day37.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 75¢ 99¢ $816 $1,081 +$265 (+32%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $469 $454 −$15 (-3%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $435 $437 +$2 (+1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $446 $432 −$13 (-3%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $220 $217 −$4 (-2%)
Senegal leading at halftime? No 88¢ 88¢ $176 $175 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $140 $145 +$5 (+4%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $175 $144 −$31 (-18%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 80¢ $142 $126 −$16 (-11%)
France leading at halftime? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $104 $100 −$4 (-4%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $71 $67 −$3 (-5%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $67 $66 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 72¢ $68 $60 −$9 (-13%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 58¢ $76 $58 −$18 (-23%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 17¢ 12¢ $73 $49 −$24 (-32%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 74¢ 99¢ $35 $47 +$12 (+33%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $27 $42 +$16 (+60%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $29 $24 −$4 (-14%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 24¢ 26¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+6%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 4¢ $100 $20 −$80 (-80%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in June? Yes 10¢ 19¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+99%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-3%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $18 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $13 −$1 -10%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $262 +$29 +11%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $56 +$39 +69%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $14 −$13 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $21 +$13 +61%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$10 -51%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $85 −$14 -16%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +15%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $8 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $56 −$54 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $52 +$3 +6%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $20 −$4 -22%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $93 +$7 +7%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $76 +$24 +32%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $49 −$48 -97%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $149 +$30 +20%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $145 +$1 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $95 +$105 +109%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $39 −$2 -4%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $44 +$5 +12%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $65 +$10 +16%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $113 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $66 $0 -0%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $77 +$9 +11%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $51 +$9 +17%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 13 $8 −$2 -22%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $253 +$22 +8%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 +$91 +874%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $83 +$12 +14%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $51 +$135 +265%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $6 +$6 +101%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $51 −$42 -83%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $99 −$98 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $817 −$630 -77%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $57 −$2 -3%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 29m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $11 2h
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 2h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY No 7¢ $12 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $36 2h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $54 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 4h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $22 4h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL No 36¢ $7 4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 42¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 53¢ $36 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 38¢ $43 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 92¢ $21 5h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 6h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 3¢ $5 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 67¢ $13 6h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $21 7h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 7h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $24 7h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $57 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL No 62¢ $0 8h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL No 62¢ $6 8h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL No 62¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,008.61 · official $4,003.91 (match) · 1593 history records