Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:30:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3da6…4667 politics 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$622 (+1%) realized +$622 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate6%5W / 82L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$1,415per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$23
14 days−$35
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$81
other 39% +$941
economics 3% −$3
world 3% −$168
sports 3% −$114
tech 3% −$4
culture 2% −$4
crypto 1% +$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 29 +0.4% -9.2% 10% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 87 -4.1% -13.2% 6% 2% -9.1%
all 87 -4.1% -13.2% 6% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 2% -9.1%
10% -21.5% 2% -17.8%
15% -29.1% 2% -25.7%
20% -36.0% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,673) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$211 vs −$6 · ×35.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$622
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses5 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 87
History coverage79d
Avg bet$1,415
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $4,598 −$6 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,349 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $2,482 −$4 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,810 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,872 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,468 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $2,629 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,638 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,694 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $985 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 04 $540 +$2 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 04 $797 +$1 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $564 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,068 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,104 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,171 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $1,071 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,812 −$4 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $2,382 −$4 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $1,460 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,340 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $3,154 −$5 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 21 $47 −$47 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $39 +$44 +114%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $1,331 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $1,482 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $1,664 −$3 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $2,538 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $3,040 −$4 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $1,638 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $1,673 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $1,698 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $1,531 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $1,488 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $1,548 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $1,659 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $1,672 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 14 $1,580 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $2,040 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $1,637 −$3 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $1,598 −$3 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $1,080 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 12 $3,266 −$4 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 11 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,665 −$3 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $4,401 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $676 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $677 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $555 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $556 5h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,347 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,349 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,426 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,429 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,499 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,500 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,567 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,570 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,371 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,373 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,615 10d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,617 11d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,635 11d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,638 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $893 12d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $895 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $611 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $612 13d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,691 13d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,694 13d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $984 13d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $985 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $800 17d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $801 18d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $564 20d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $564 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 262 history records