Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:58:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3da8…80c3 sports 517 markets active 10h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$113,967 (+7%) realized +$114,071 · open −$104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%319W / 196L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$2,990per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$14,108est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$5,504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24,355
7 days+$64,960
14 days+$97,132
30 days+$102,540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$110,603
crypto 1% −$5,368
other 1% −$497
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +17.6% +6.4% 79% 62% +3.0%
≤30d 409 +2.6% -7.2% 65% 58% -3.1%
≤90d 515 -1.2% -10.7% 62% 56% -3.3%
all 515 -1.2% -10.7% 62% 56% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 56% -3.3%
10% -19.2% 50% -12.5%
15% ← realistic here -27.0% 41% -21.0%
20% -34.2% 29% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$5,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,611 vs −$2,087 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$5,504
Realized+$114,071
Unrealized−$104
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses319 / 196
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$14,108
Open positions2
Markets (closed)515 / 517
History coverage50d
Avg bet$2,990
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 515 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 66¢ 64¢ $5,280 $5,160 −$120 (-2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 50¢ 52¢ $328 $344 +$16 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 173 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,033 +$90 +9%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $1,180 +$48 +4%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5,058 +$3,138 +62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,522 +$999 +40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $9,500 +$500 +5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5,413 +$3,587 +66%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $7,280 +$6,720 +92%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $13,133 +$6,564 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2,800 −$2,800 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $18,606 +$1,394 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $5,063 +$3,558 +70%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4,051 −$4,000 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5,069 −$4,998 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $960 −$942 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $13,612 −$13,600 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7,721 +$2,279 +30%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $8,204 +$254 +3%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $22,695 +$702 +3%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $19,025 +$833 +4%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $5,032 +$1,300 +26%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10,081 −$10,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5,300 +$4,700 +89%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5,046 +$2,200 +44%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5,950 +$1,050 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $8,563 +$2,723 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4,830 +$2,170 +45%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3,400 +$1,600 +47%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,322 +$1,599 +121%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,052 +$4,023 +132%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5,064 +$3,707 +73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5,027 −$5,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10,149 +$4,851 +48%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3,650 +$1,350 +37%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,169 +$1,831 +58%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,400 +$1,600 +47%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,100 +$1,900 +61%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $9,373 +$275 +3%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $4,000 +$1,000 +25%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,902 +$1,098 +28%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $3,950 −$3,950 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3,033 +$1,729 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,032 +$2,224 +109%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $910 +$37 +4%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $5,011 +$401 +8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,354 +$317 +24%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $4,934 +$1,439 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5,043 +$1,999 +40%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5,092 +$7,742 +152%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5,057 +$3,008 +60%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6,667 +$3,333 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $136 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $3 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $582 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $388 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $5 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $4 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $4 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $4 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $18 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $187 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $582 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $8 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $17 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $5 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $4 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $5 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $15 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $19 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $19 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $85 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $329 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $5 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $3 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $17 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $2,800 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $35 10h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 92¢ $175 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 92¢ $230 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 92¢ $115 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 92¢ $15 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,504.35 · official $5,504.35 (match) · 1442 history records