Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:05:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3D 0x3daa…524b sports 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$124 (+10%) realized +$147 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%31W / 27L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$118
14 days+$146
30 days+$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$86
other 21% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -0.0% -9.5% 54% 54% +1.2%
≤30d 58 +6.7% -3.5% 53% 53% +2.2%
≤90d 58 +6.7% -3.5% 53% 53% +2.2%
all 58 +6.7% -3.5% 53% 53% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 53% +2.2%
10% -12.7% 52% -7.6%
15% -21.1% 48% -16.5%
20% -28.9% 36% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$14 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$147
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses31 / 27
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage12d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 64¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma Jun 27 $12 +$5 +38%
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Jun 27 $17 +$17 +101%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $28 −$16 -57%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys Jun 27 $8 −$2 -33%
ITF Kamen: Valentina Ivanov vs Eva Marie Voracek Jun 27 $36 −$26 -73%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $4 +$4 +93%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $16 +$4 +24%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 26 $27 +$14 +50%
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Jun 26 $30 −$30 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $7 −$6 -99%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $9 −$8 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $13 +$6 +47%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $62 +$97 +156%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $25 +$13 +52%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Soon-Woo Kwon Jun 25 $9 +$6 +62%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 +$6 +31%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 24 $63 +$41 +65%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $14 +$6 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $26 −$26 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Sara Bejlek Jun 24 $33 −$2 -5%
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 24 $19 +$24 +124%
ITF Irvine: Bryce Nakashima vs Kenta Miyoshi Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Emerson Jones Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Luka Mikrut Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $66 −$66 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 23 $53 +$40 +76%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $33 +$31 +93%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $25 +$19 +76%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola Jun 22 $8 +$6 +79%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle Jun 22 $25 +$40 +158%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Alex Bolt Jun 22 $13 +$14 +109%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Daniil Glinka vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 22 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $14 +$32 +226%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $30 +$12 +40%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $16 −$6 -38%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $13 +$9 +65%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 21 $71 +$12 +16%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -99%
ITF Tulsa: Andrej Martin vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jun 20 $12 +$5 +44%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele Jun 20 $11 −$11 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Jun 20 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 +$12 +291%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 64¢ $23 32m
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 72¢ $12 1h
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, SELL Abus Magomedov 100¢ $35 1h
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Abus Magomedov 49¢ $17 2h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Ethan Quinn $1 3h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Ethan Quinn $1 3h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Ethan Quinn 50¢ $3 4h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Ethan Quinn 51¢ $8 4h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Ethan Quinn 38¢ $25 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys SELL Madison Keys 100¢ $7 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys BUY Tatjana Maria 10¢ $3 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 73¢ $5 6h
ITF Kamen: Valentina Ivanov vs Eva Marie Voracek BUY Eva Marie Voracek $1 8h
ITF Kamen: Valentina Ivanov vs Eva Marie Voracek BUY Eva Marie Voracek 10¢ $2 8h
ITF Kamen: Valentina Ivanov vs Eva Marie Voracek SELL Valentina Ivanov 84¢ $12 9h
ITF Kamen: Valentina Ivanov vs Eva Marie Voracek BUY Valentina Ivanov 62¢ $9 9h
ITF Kamen: Valentina Ivanov vs Eva Marie Voracek BUY Eva Marie Voracek 35¢ $10 10h
ITF Kamen: Valentina Ivanov vs Eva Marie Voracek BUY Eva Marie Voracek 64¢ $13 11h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $41 24h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 66¢ $27 25h
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) BUY Fokina 45¢ $30 29h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $7 31h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $4 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 80¢ $16 32h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 38¢ $9 38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 78¢ $19 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 52¢ $13 40h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 50¢ $13 41h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $25 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 38¢ $26 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.09 (match) · 124 history records