Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:01:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

3D 0x3dab…f0f1 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$316 (-13%) realized −$313 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate45%5W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$200per market

Trades / day15.7pace

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-31.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-24.5%	-31.7%	45%	45%	-31.3%
≤30d	11	-24.5%	-31.7%	45%	45%	-31.3%
≤90d	11	-24.5%	-31.7%	45%	45%	-31.3%
all	11	-24.5%	-31.7%	45%	45%	-31.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover15.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-31.7%	45%	-31.3%
10%	-38.2%	45%	-37.9%
15%	-44.2%	36%	-43.9%
20%	-49.7%	27%	-49.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 79% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -25% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$86 vs −$150 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.48 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$197

Realized−$313

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses5 / 6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)11 / 12

History coverage2d

Avg bet$200

Trades / day15.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	65¢	64¢	$200	$197	−$3 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Jun 25	$103	−$100	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Jun 25	$103	−$58	-56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Jun 25	$104	+$66	+64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Jun 25	$158	−$31	-19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 25	$103	+$75	+73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Jun 25	$208	−$84	-40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Jun 25	$53	−$50	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$7	+27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$18	+70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$730	+$262	+36%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$583	−$580	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$103	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	SELL Down	24¢	$45	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	SELL Down	85¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	SELL Down	85¢	$89	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	SELL Down	85¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	SELL Down	85¢	$53	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Down	17¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	SELL Down	22¢	$84	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$105	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	SELL Down	66¢	$30	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$105	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	SELL Down	55¢	$112	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	SELL Up	31¢	$34	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$26	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	65¢	$202	2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	73¢	$730	12h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$583	39h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.78 · official $196.78 (match) · 30 history records