Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:42:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3db3…3aa5 crypto 12 markets active 6d ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$192 (+7%) realized +$192 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$133
7 days−$133
14 days−$133
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$3
weather 14% +$1
other 9% +$113
tech 5% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -88.9% -90.0% 0% 0% -66.6%
≤30d 9 -88.9% -90.0% 0% 0% -66.6%
≤90d 10 -80.0% -81.9% 10% 0% -29.4%
all 20 -4.3% -13.4% 40% 10% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 10% -12.3%
10% -21.7% 10% -20.7%
15% -29.3% 10% -28.3%
20% -36.2% 10% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +71% → late -80% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$35 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$192
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 12
History coverage125d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $78 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 19°C or below on March 28? Apr 27 $390 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 09 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 5? Mar 05 $299 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $318 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 6? Mar 05 $378 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? Mar 05 $387 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 4? Mar 05 $387 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $298 $0 +0%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on February 11? Feb 27 $29 +$31 +104%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on February 5? Feb 11 $32 +$263 +809%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on February 5? Feb 05 $105 −$105 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $78 6d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $78 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 19°C or below on March 28? BUY No 100¢ $390 81d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $150 99d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 5? SELL No 100¢ $299 103d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 5? BUY No 100¢ $299 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 5? SELL Yes 100¢ $318 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $318 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 6? SELL Yes 100¢ $379 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $299 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $387 104d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? SELL No 100¢ $3 104d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? SELL No 100¢ $8 104d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? SELL No 100¢ $9 104d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? SELL No 100¢ $8 104d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? SELL No 100¢ $8 104d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? SELL No 100¢ $8 104d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? SELL No 100¢ $9 104d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? SELL No 100¢ $9 104d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? SELL No 100¢ $9 104d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? SELL No 100¢ $8 104d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? SELL No 100¢ $8 104d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? SELL No 100¢ $8 104d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? SELL No 100¢ $8 104d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? SELL No 100¢ $9 104d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? SELL No 100¢ $8 104d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? SELL No 100¢ $8 104d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? SELL No 100¢ $15 104d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? SELL No 100¢ $8 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records