Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:32:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3D 0x3db5…7094 crypto 45 markets active 5d ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,807 (+5%) realized +$1,807 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 29L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$755per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,033now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$14
sports 30% +$1,935
crypto 17% −$97
economics 6% −$14
other 3% −$3
world 3% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +2.5% -7.3% 100% 0% -7.3%
≤90d 3 +30.3% +17.9% 67% 33% +11.7%
all 43 -7.5% -16.3% 33% 23% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 23% -4.6%
10% -24.3% 21% -13.7%
15% -31.6% 16% -22.0%
20% -38.3% 16% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% too few recent
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$1,006) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$426 vs −$143 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$1,033
Realized+$1,807
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage523d
Avg bet$755
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $663 $664 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $369 $369 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 27 $1,006 +$25 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 19 $1,919 −$2 -0%
Oilers vs. Sharks Apr 19 $1,017 +$902 +89%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $1,019 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Knicks Mar 04 $921 −$921 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Devils Feb 03 $982 −$982 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Feb 03 $1,005 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Senators Jan 25 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
Spurs vs. Celtics Jan 25 $1,005 +$928 +92%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 10 $1,005 −$1 -0%
Mavericks vs. Kings Jan 10 $716 +$989 +138%
North Texas vs. Tulane Dec 26 $835 +$1,021 +122%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 04 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Nuggets vs. Rockets Dec 04 $795 +$1,012 +127%
Rangers vs. Red Wings Nov 07 $1,032 −$1,032 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Canucks Nov 07 $713 +$1,026 +144%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $17 −$17 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $1,072 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 18? Oct 19 $1,006 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102,000 on October 18? Oct 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,100 on September 29? Oct 18 $1 $0 +28%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Oct 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Aug 21 $17 $0 -1%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 31 $27 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2 PM ET Jul 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 05 $56 −$9 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13? Jun 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 24? May 12 $47 +$53 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 11? Apr 24 $1 $0 +18%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025? Apr 11 $26 −$1 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 25? Apr 11 $1 $0 +30%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 25 $32 $0 -1%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Mar 09 $26 $0 -1%
Linea airdrop in Q1 2025? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Feb 08 $26 $0 -2%
Ethereum all time high by January 31? Feb 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? Jan 21 $16 $0 -2%
Will Pam Bondi be Trump's Attorney General? Jan 21 $66 $0 -0%
Dogecoin above $0.36 on January 10? Jan 21 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 06 $6,659 −$7 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 06 $6,665 −$7 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $369 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $664 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1,031 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 97¢ $1,006 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $1,917 60d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $1,919 60d
Oilers vs. Sharks BUY Oilers 53¢ $1,017 71d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $1,017 91d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $1,018 91d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1,018 98d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1,019 98d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 39¢ $921 106d
Blue Jackets vs. Devils BUY Devils 50¢ $982 135d
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,004 135d
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,005 135d
Golden Knights vs. Senators BUY Golden Knights 56¢ $1,005 144d
Spurs vs. Celtics BUY Spurs 52¢ $1,005 159d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $1,004 159d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $1,005 159d
Mavericks vs. Kings BUY Kings 42¢ $716 173d
North Texas vs. Tulane BUY Tulane 45¢ $835 196d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $1,006 196d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1,007 196d
Nuggets vs. Rockets BUY Nuggets 44¢ $795 209d
Rangers vs. Red Wings BUY Red Wings 50¢ $1,032 223d
Blackhawks vs. Canucks BUY Blackhawks 41¢ $713 225d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 2¢ $17 232d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $1,016 232d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102,000 on October 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $28 243d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,006 243d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,032.74 · official $1,032.74 (match) · 86 history records