Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:30:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3db6…cb34 crypto 307 markets active 6d ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%130W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$24
14 days−$30
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$7
other 10% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -4.0% -13.1% 33% 20% -17.0%
≤30d 164 -2.2% -11.5% 30% 21% -13.8%
≤90d 307 -4.7% -13.8% 42% 37% -13.8%
all 307 -4.7% -13.8% 42% 37% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 37% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 31% -22.0%
15% -29.6% 21% -29.5%
20% -36.5% 13% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses130 / 177
Open positions0
Markets (closed)307 / 307
History coverage36d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 307 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$8 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$4 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$4 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $17 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $17 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$1 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1314 history records