Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:00:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3db6…387c other 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$325 (-26%) realized −$325 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%16W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$80
14 days+$38
30 days−$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$118
other 42% −$90
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +53.2% +38.7% 45% 45% +27.6%
≤30d 53 +6.2% -3.9% 30% 30% -25.7%
≤90d 53 +6.2% -3.9% 30% 30% -25.7%
all 53 +6.2% -3.9% 30% 30% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 30% -25.7%
10% -13.1% 30% -32.8%
15% -21.5% 30% -39.3%
20% -29.2% 30% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$21 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$325
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses16 / 37
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage18d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 54¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $4 +$32 +711%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $19 +$23 +118%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $72 +$67 +93%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $9 +$15 +158%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $17 +$17 +105%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $3 +$14 +549%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $24 −$24 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $29 +$31 +105%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 +$47 +226%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $35 −$35 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $7 +$24 +344%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $13 +$64 +510%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $14 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $3 +$19 +649%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 −$49 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $24 +$33 +140%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$18 +71%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $72 −$71 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $56 +$46 +83%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $62 −$61 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $71 +$40 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $57 +$63 +109%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $66 −$65 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $43 9m
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 54m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 54m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $139 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $72 3h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $49 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $9 6d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $34 6d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $17 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $24 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 7d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 7d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 7d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 7d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 7d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 7d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $29 7d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 8d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $26 8d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 8d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 8d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.21 · official $43.21 (match) · 70 history records