Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:52:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3db7…eb93 other 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate22%17W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$13
politics 10% −$7
other 8% −$7
sports 3% −$15
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -7.2% -16.1% 21% 0% -13.0%
≤90d 58 -11.2% -19.6% 16% 10% -16.0%
all 76 -2.8% -12.0% 22% 13% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 13% -9.7%
10% -20.4% 13% -18.4%
15% -28.1% 13% -26.3%
20% -35.2% 13% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$4 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses17 / 59
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage612d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $26 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 18 $76 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 18 $5 +$7 +129%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $9 +$6 +65%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $72 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $72 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 03 $69 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 02 $69 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $68 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $145 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $67 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $72 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $142 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $67 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $66 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 22 $71 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $70 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $8 +$6 +70%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $11 +$8 +72%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $12 +$13 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 2h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 26h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 28h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 2d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $9 10d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 13d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $27 14d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 14d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 14d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $16 20d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $16 20d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 21d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 22d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $17 23d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $17 23d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 30d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 30d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $11 31d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $11 31d
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 33d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 33d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.82 · official $44.82 (match) · 296 history records