Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:38:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3db9…a73a world 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%34W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$7
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$3
other 20% +$1
politics 14% +$2
sports 11% −$7
economics 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +4.0% -5.9% 43% 7% -8.9%
≤30d 35 +0.5% -9.1% 34% 3% -9.3%
≤90d 83 +6.8% -3.4% 40% 4% -9.3%
all 89 +6.1% -4.0% 38% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 4% -9.6%
10% -13.2% 3% -18.3%
15% -21.6% 3% -26.2%
20% -29.2% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses34 / 55
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage492d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $47 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $33 +$1 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $31 $0 -1%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $43 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $84 +$2 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $122 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $46 +$1 +2%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $63 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $23 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $9 $0 +5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $84 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $58 +$3 +5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $42 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $54 −$2 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $20 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $4 $0 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $39 −$2 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $11 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $92 +$3 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $118 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $59 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $45 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $41 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $46 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $179 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $161 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $99 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $47 21m
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $34 13h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $33 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $5 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $26 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $3 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $20 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $8 20h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 33h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 33h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $47 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $23 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $24 44h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $25 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $25 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $0 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $47 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $46 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 5¢ $4 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 3¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $44 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $44 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $19 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $2 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $38 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $40 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.00 (match) · 398 history records