Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:55:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3D 0x3dbb…49a2 crypto 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$397 (+9%) realized +$824 · open −$427
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%30W / 47L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$16
14 days+$61
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$726
world 16% −$342
other 16% −$69
politics 11% +$1,718
weather 2% −$100
finance 2% −$100
sports 1% $0
tech 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +9.8% -0.6% 67% 67% +18.5%
≤30d 10 -10.4% -18.9% 60% 60% +8.1%
≤90d 21 +1.0% -8.6% 38% 38% -34.3%
all 77 +19.7% +8.3% 39% 39% +11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.3% 39% +11.4%
10% -2.0% 36% +0.8%
15% -11.5% 30% -9.0%
20% -20.2% 26% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$43 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$307
Realized+$824
Unrealized−$427
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses30 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)77 / 83
History coverage175d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $120 $117 −$3 (-3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 48¢ 10¢ $483 $96 −$388 (-80%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 19¢ 3¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$19 +62%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 +$3 +34%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $91 +$41 +46%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026? May 01 $10 +$86 +864%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 27 $10 −$9 -95%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Apr 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 21 $25 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 20 $5 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 20 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? Apr 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 26? Apr 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 26 $30 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 26 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 26 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 26 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 26 $30 +$40 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 26 $10 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 26 $400 +$342 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 26 $10 +$17 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 26 $100 +$191 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 25 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 25 $30 +$22 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 25 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $113 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 3d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 12d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 12d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 12d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 12d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 12d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 12d
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 19¢ $10 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $91 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 62d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 62d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY No 17¢ $200 62d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $10 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 68d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 61¢ $25 69d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $2 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $30 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $30 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $306.67 · official $306.68 (match) · 248 history records