Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:10:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3D 0x3dc1…1cd3 sports 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$85 (+4%) realized +$103 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$539now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$26
14 days+$92
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$128
other 41% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.6% -10.0% 52% 52% -7.2%
≤30d 35 -0.6% -10.0% 54% 54% -3.9%
≤90d 35 -0.6% -10.0% 54% 54% -3.9%
all 35 -0.6% -10.0% 54% 54% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 54% -3.9%
10% -18.7% 54% -13.1%
15% -26.5% 49% -21.5%
20% -33.7% 46% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$33 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$539
Realized+$103
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions10
Markets (closed)35 / 45
History coverage13d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $120 $127 +$7 (+6%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 40¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 42¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+34%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 52¢ $30 $49 +$19 (+62%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 57¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $22 $2 −$20 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 20 $31 +$26 +85%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$35 +69%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 +$23 +75%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $41 +$32 +78%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $31 +$31 +100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 +$13 +52%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$27 +179%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $71 +$52 +72%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$21 +138%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $30 +$18 +59%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$26 +128%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$51 +100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 +$58 +113%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$40 +78%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $66 +$37 +56%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $91 −$91 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $81 −$67 -83%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $101 +$24 +24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 +$45 +89%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$44 +43%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $107 +$25 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $36 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $31 5h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 16h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $51 16h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $26 19h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $41 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $31 38h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $31 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $31 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $25 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $30 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $36 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $15 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $71 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $30 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $75 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 5d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 5d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $52 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $51 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $538.52 · official $538.52 (match) · 81 history records