Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:25:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3dca…3c13
politics · 164 markets active 1d ago
2.5score
+$80,489 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$37,403 · open +$28,306
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$216,719
Realized+$37,403
Unrealized+$28,306
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses97 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Open positions66
Markets (closed)140 / 164
Avg bet$3,833
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 66 History 140 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$545
7 days+$4,947
14 days+$18,327
30 days+$22,722
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 60¢ 88¢ $36,054 $53,007 +$16,953 (+47%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $43,315 $49,645 +$6,330 (+15%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 94¢ 97¢ $23,471 $24,178 +$706 (+3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 96¢ $19,408 $21,127 +$1,719 (+9%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 93¢ 98¢ $19,333 $20,427 +$1,095 (+6%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $9,789 $9,927 +$138 (+1%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 92¢ 91¢ $6,434 $6,381 −$53 (-1%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 14¢ 70¢ $1,056 $5,426 +$4,370 (+414%)
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? Yes 63¢ 78¢ $3,437 $4,288 +$851 (+25%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 73¢ 90¢ $2,220 $2,723 +$502 (+23%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 34¢ 23¢ $3,400 $2,325 −$1,075 (-32%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 40¢ 56¢ $1,160 $1,657 +$497 (+43%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 69¢ 52¢ $2,095 $1,594 −$501 (-24%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 71¢ 98¢ $1,046 $1,462 +$415 (+40%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 38¢ 27¢ $1,920 $1,327 −$592 (-31%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $1,218 $1,243 +$25 (+2%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 68¢ 60¢ $1,360 $1,200 −$160 (-12%)
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? No 88¢ 93¢ $1,112 $1,179 +$67 (+6%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 34¢ 14¢ $2,500 $995 −$1,505 (-60%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $844 $735 −$109 (-13%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 86¢ 99¢ $516 $592 +$76 (+15%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 66¢ 57¢ $660 $575 −$85 (-13%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $360 $515 +$155 (+43%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 43¢ 43¢ $430 $430 +$0 (+0%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 32¢ 99¢ $126 $389 +$263 (+209%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Germany win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 12 $197 −$197 -100%
Winter Games 2026: Will USA or Norway earn more medals? Jun 12 $90 −$90 -100%
US strikes Nigeria by December 31? Jun 12 $855 −$855 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 12 $168 −$168 -100%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 12 $111 −$111 -100%
Will António José Seguro win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Po Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Daniel Cameron be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assem Jun 12 $400 −$400 -100%
Will André Ventura win 3rd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal Jun 12 $139 −$139 -100%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4,108 −$4,062 -99%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win 4th place in the 1st round of the 2026 Po Jun 12 $641 −$641 -100%
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics Jun 12 $521 +$4,783 +918%
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30? Jun 12 $396 −$396 -100%
Will Tommaso Paradiso win Sanremo 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 202 Jun 12 $670 −$83 -12%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 12 $705 −$705 -100%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $8,130 +$2,802 +34%
Will Cristiano Sicari win the 2026 Chieti mayoral election? Jun 08 $823 −$101 -12%
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 08 $758 +$236 +31%
Will Luigi Del Prete win the 2026 Frattamaggiore mayoral election? Jun 08 $517 +$522 +101%
Will Giovanni Legnini win the 2026 Chieti mayoral election? Jun 08 $916 +$170 +18%
Will Floriana Natale win the 2026 San Giovanni Rotondo mayoral electio Jun 08 $418 +$734 +176%
Will Pietro Mastropasqua win the 2026 Molfetta mayoral election? Jun 08 $669 +$502 +75%
Will Giovanni Nappi win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election Jun 08 $899 +$2,595 +289%
Will Pasquale Mauri win the 2026 Angri mayoral election? Jun 08 $53 +$21 +39%
Will Rossella Fini win the 2026 San Giovanni Rotondo mayoral election? Jun 08 $47 +$63 +136%
Will Alfonso Scoppa win the 2026 Angri mayoral election? Jun 08 $73 +$38 +52%
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi Jun 08 $168 +$317 +188%
Will Maria Natale win the 2026 San Nicola La Strada mayoral election? Jun 08 $81 −$79 -97%
Will Eligia Santucci win the 2026 San Nicola La Strada mayoral electio Jun 08 $98 −$95 -97%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $5,000 +$56 +1%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $272 −$134 -49%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $13,787 +$726 +5%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $91 +$60 +66%
Will Raffaele Giordano win the 2026 Cava De' Tirreni mayoral election? Jun 06 $18 −$17 -97%
Will Luigi Petrone win the 2026 Cava De' Tirreni mayoral election? Jun 06 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Gianluca Tittarelli win the 2026 Macerata mayoral election? Jun 06 $107 −$103 -96%
Will Daniel Quintero place 3rd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 04 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Sergio Fajardo place 3rd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian p Jun 04 $141 +$3 +2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in the Antioquia Department? Jun 04 $127 +$30 +24%
Will Paloma Valencia place 3rd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 04 $215 +$23 +10%
Will Sergio Fajardo place 1st in the Antioquia Department? Jun 04 $474 +$7 +2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C Jun 04 $500 +$4 +1%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 04 $1,913 +$3,627 +190%
Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 04 $3,560 +$122 +3%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 02 $14,937 +$1,887 +13%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $2,790 +$210 +8%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 01 $22,784 +$6,434 +28%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $5,622 −$1,573 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 57% +$47,787
world 21% +$8,328
other 19% +$13,074
culture 2% −$531
economics 1% +$397
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $24 24h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $4,188 37h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $163 37h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $126 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $140 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $80 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $8 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $301 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $117 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $4,597 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $143 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $114 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $77 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $593 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $114 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $471 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $65 38h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $124 38h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $472 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $4,117 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $465 38h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $72 38h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $34 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $132 38h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $135 38h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $84 38h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $51 38h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $101 38h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $2,463 38h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $241 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +1.5% -8.2% 39% 34% +1.1%
≤30d 63 +9.8% -0.6% 60% 38% +6.8%
≤90d 124 +14.5% +3.6% 69% 36% +2.3%
all 140 +11.7% +1.1% 69% 36% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.1% 36% +0.5%
10% -8.6% 24% -9.1%
15% ← realistic here -17.4% 19% -17.9%
20% -25.5% 15% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216,719.08 · official $216,719.44 (match) · 3500 history records