Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:57:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3D 0x3dcb…e3c5 crypto 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$491 (+4%) realized +$494 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate72%133W / 53L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$63
14 days+$195
30 days+$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 42% +$40
other 29% +$593
crypto 24% −$240
world 2% −$19
sports 2% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -19.3% -27.0% 50% 25% +7.0%
≤30d 16 +0.3% -9.3% 69% 25% -6.0%
≤90d 56 -2.7% -12.0% 66% 39% -3.1%
all 186 -4.0% -13.2% 72% 25% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 25% -6.4%
10% -21.5% 12% -15.4%
15% -29.1% 4% -23.5%
20% -36.0% 3% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$435
Realized+$494
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses133 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)186 / 191
History coverage98d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $260 $273 +$13 (+5%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 81¢ 93¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? No 77¢ 74¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 34¢ 12¢ $47 $17 −$30 (-63%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $257 +$74 +29%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $68 −$7 -10%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +4%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $489 +$24 +5%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $504 +$107 +21%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $386 +$15 +4%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $132 +$11 +8%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $148 +$15 +10%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $76 +$7 +10%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 05 $1,356 −$99 -7%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 05 $291 +$9 +3%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $50 −$18 -35%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $51 −$7 -14%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $25 +$10 +39%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $35 +$13 +38%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $447 +$293 +66%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $20 −$7 -33%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $412 +$51 +12%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $5 −$1 -14%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $587 +$16 +3%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $40 −$3 -7%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $283 +$63 +22%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $40 −$5 -12%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $203 +$16 +8%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $551 −$174 -32%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $15 +$4 +29%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $442 +$61 +14%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $353 +$30 +8%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $372 +$41 +11%
Meta (META) Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $5 $0 +6%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $93 +$7 +7%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $217 +$60 +28%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $61 +$21 +34%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $102 +$5 +5%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $40 +$8 +20%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $223 +$25 +11%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 5? May 05 $32 +$8 +25%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $101 −$41 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 01 $22 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 01 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 30? Apr 30 $35 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 30 $2 +$2 +105%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 30? Apr 30 $10 −$3 -32%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $68 +$12 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $110 −$15 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $30 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 81¢ $101 21h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 24? SELL Down 100¢ $331 37h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 94¢ $200 38h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 31¢ $10 38h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 55¢ $20 38h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 57¢ $10 38h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Down 45¢ $15 38h
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 24? SELL Up 62¢ $61 42h
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 68¢ $68 42h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 14¢ $2 3d
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 14¢ $2 3d
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 14¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $79 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 9d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 99¢ $358 10d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 95¢ $95 10d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 92¢ $241 10d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 88¢ $154 10d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 89¢ $89 10d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 89¢ $5 10d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 88¢ $7 10d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 88¢ $1 10d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 82¢ $50 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $435.39 · official $435.39 (match) · 661 history records