Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:14:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3dcc…049a world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$4
other 10% $0
crypto 4% $0
politics 4% $0
weather 3% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +0.2% -9.4% 31% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 14 +0.7% -8.9% 36% 0% -8.7%
all 27 -8.2% -17.0% 44% 4% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 4% -8.8%
10% -24.9% 0% -17.5%
15% -32.2% 0% -25.5%
20% -38.8% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.93 per $1 lost it wins $3.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage454d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 71¢ 72¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $37 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $41 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $37 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $5 $0 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $41 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $44 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $38 +$3 +8%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $6 $0 -2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 06 $2 $0 +3%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 06 $5 $0 -8%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 46-47°F on April 5? Apr 07 $23 $0 +1%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 04 $2 $0 +13%
Will Călin Georgescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romani Apr 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 03 $26 +$1 +3%
Egypt/Jordan agree to take 100k+ Gazan refugees before April? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $21 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $13 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $35 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $37 40h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $14 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $14 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $8 45h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $37 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $37 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $41 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $41 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $41 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $41 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $18 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $18 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $35 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $35 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $38 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $0 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 26d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $40 26d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $40 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.88 · official $37.83 (match) · 104 history records