Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:14:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3D 0x3dcd…3aa1 crypto 733 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate81%592W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$1
14 days−$9
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$36
other 2% −$2
weather 0% +$1
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -3.9% -13.0% 82% 26% -10.2%
≤30d 510 -3.2% -12.4% 77% 33% -12.9%
≤90d 733 -1.9% -11.2% 81% 33% -11.8%
all 733 -1.9% -11.2% 81% 33% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 33% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 13% -20.3%
15% -27.5% 6% -28.0%
20% -34.6% 3% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses592 / 141
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)733 / 733
History coverage49d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 733 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +15%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -59%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +41%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -47%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +9%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -78%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -55%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 13h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 13h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 13h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 20h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 20h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 20h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 21h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $0 22h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 22h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 22h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2308 history records