Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
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3D 0x3dce…0510 crypto 705 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (89 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,961 (-18%) realized −$5,961 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%278W / 506L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day88.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,349
7 days−$5,392
14 days−$5,611
30 days−$7,204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,632
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (89 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 -41.9% -47.4% 17% 17% -51.1%
≤30d 448 -16.1% -24.1% 34% 32% -35.1%
≤90d 784 -13.9% -22.1% 35% 33% -29.0%
all 784 -13.9% -22.1% 35% 33% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.1% 33% -29.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.5% 31% -35.8%
15% -36.3% 28% -42.0%
20% -42.6% 24% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$47 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5,961
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses278 / 506
Open positions0
Markets (closed)784 / 705
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day88.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 784 Trades
no open positions (466 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 24 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 24 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 24 $43 −$43 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 24 $94 −$94 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $111 −$111 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 24 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $65 −$65 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $176 −$176 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $174 −$174 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $69 −$69 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $80 −$80 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 24 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $87 −$87 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $92 −$92 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $68 −$68 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $46 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $54 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $9 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $8 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.76 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records