Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:05:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3dd1…557e
weather · 517 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$147 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$116 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$55
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses307 / 203
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions7
Markets (closed)510 / 517
History coverage48d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day45.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 7 History 510 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days−$4,469
14 days−$3,022
30 days−$1,162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 56¢ 57¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+3%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 34¢ 100¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+194%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 74¢ 88¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 62¢ 43¢ $12 $9 −$4 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? No 77¢ 74¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 69¢ 48¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14? No 52¢ 52¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 13? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner T1 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 13? No 29¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 13? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 43¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 69¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 13? No 18¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 14 $7 +$3 +37%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $137 +$83 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $26 +$12 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $15 +$5 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $51 −$1 -1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $39 +$9 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $14 +$6 +41%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $20 +$10 +48%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $19 +$9 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $25 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $27 −$26 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $46 −$36 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $168 +$19 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $56 −$6 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $13 −$6 -49%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $15 −$5 -35%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $13 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 13 $28 +$7 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 13 $72 +$29 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 13 $23 +$15 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +78%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $12 +$8 +69%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $9 +$11 +126%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 +$3 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $11 +$19 +164%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $163 −$13 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $15 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $43 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 97% −$5
sports 2% −$107
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 57¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 52¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 55¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $44 5h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 9¢ $1 5h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 34¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 67¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 28¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 28¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $7 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 19¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 19¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 19¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 19¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 17¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 19¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 20¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 19¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 19¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 17¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 17¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 17¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 16¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 17¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 16¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 16¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 271 -45.7% -50.9% 31% 25% -52.1%
≤30d 441 -9.4% -18.0% 57% 49% -15.0%
≤90d 510 -0.3% -9.8% 60% 51% -10.0%
all 510 -0.3% -9.8% 60% 51% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover45.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 51% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 35% -18.6%
15% -26.3% 23% -26.5%
20% -33.5% 14% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.77 · official $54.87 (match) · 2666 history records