Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3D 0x3dd2…9ab1 other 506 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$96,307 (+177%) realized +$96,765 · open −$458
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -75% what you keep after slip
Net edge-75%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate8%14W / 155L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day50.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$619now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 41d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$10,259
politics 32% −$9,535
economics 10% −$4,441
sports 8% −$891
tech 8% −$1,708
weather 3% −$115
world 2% −$489
culture 1% −$135
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-71.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -31.0% -37.5% 22% 6% -98.5%
≤30d 137 -60.9% -64.6% 10% 3% -98.3%
≤90d 169 -68.0% -71.0% 8% 2% -98.4%
all 169 -68.0% -71.0% 8% 2% -98.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -71.0% 2% -98.4%
10% ← realistic here -73.8% 2% -98.6%
15% -76.3% 2% -98.7%
20% -78.7% 1% -98.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -98% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -68% · $-wt -98% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -97% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$175 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$619
Realized+$96,765
Unrealized−$458
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses14 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions490
Markets (closed)169 / 506
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$107
Trades / day50.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 490 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will George Pickens play for Detroit Lions in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 33¢ $1 $15 +$14 (+2692%)
Will Iraq be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-32%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 14¢ $17 $8 −$10 (-57%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 88¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for New England Patriots next? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 33¢ 8¢ $17 $4 −$13 (-74%)
Will George Pickens play for Minnesota Vikings in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $1 $4 +$4 (+746%)
Will George Pickens play for Houston Texans in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $1 $4 +$4 (+746%)
Will George Pickens play for Pittsburgh Steelers in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $1 $4 +$4 (+746%)
Will George Pickens play for Chicago Bears in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $1 $4 +$4 (+746%)
Will George Pickens play for Jacksonville Jaguars in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $1 $4 +$4 (+746%)
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 98¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2026? No 70¢ 95¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+36%)
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? No 62¢ 92¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+49%)
Will Warren Buffett be 2nd richest person on December 31? No 95¢ 96¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jensen Huang be 2nd richest person on December 31? No 98¢ 96¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jeff Bezos be 2nd richest person on December 31? No 95¢ 96¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk be 2nd richest person on December 31? No 96¢ 95¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Linda Noskova win the 2026 Women’s US Open? No 77¢ 99¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+29%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1900.00 and 1999.99 at the end of December 2026? No 74¢ 98¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+33%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 92¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+74%)
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? No 97¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election? No 37¢ 75¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+103%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 16 $1 +$37 +4903%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on I Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will Victoria Mboko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 16 $0 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)? Jun 16 $0 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? Jun 16 $0 $0 +25%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? Jun 16 $0 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)? Jun 16 $0 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)? Jun 16 $0 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31 Jun 16 $0 $0 +5%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 16 $3,102 −$3,004 -97%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 16 $4,017 −$4,013 -100%
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 16 $248 −$248 -100%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 16 $18 −$13 -71%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Jun 16 $229 −$229 -100%
Will Filipe Luis be the next manager of Crystal Palace? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +49%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e Jun 15 $28 −$28 -97%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,100 −$1,099 -100%
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,181 −$1,175 -100%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,273 −$1,273 -100%
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,144 −$1,138 -100%
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,243 −$1,239 -100%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $364 −$288 -79%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 14 $142 −$142 -100%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 14 $127 −$122 -96%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 14 $142 −$142 -100%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $325 −$324 -100%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $331 −$331 -100%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $332 −$332 -100%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $79 −$50 -64%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $333 −$333 -100%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $332 −$332 -100%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $332 −$332 -100%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $332 −$332 -100%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $224 −$224 -100%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $332 −$332 -100%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $333 −$333 -100%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $328 −$327 -100%
Will "The Crash" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 13 $466 −$465 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 12 $60 −$58 -96%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 12 $59 −$57 -96%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri Jun 12 $60 −$55 -92%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 12 $60 −$52 -87%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 12 $47 −$22 -47%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pr Jun 12 $62 −$57 -93%
Will Isack Hadjar get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 12 $45 −$45 -99%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Jun 04 $129 −$129 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 21¢ $0 30m
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 81¢ $166 53m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $201 53m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 19¢ $39 53m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 21¢ $1 58m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $79 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 81¢ $65 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 19¢ $15 1h
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY No 100¢ $237 1h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY No 7¢ $17 1h
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June BUY No 92¢ $218 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $122 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 81¢ $100 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 19¢ $23 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 21¢ $1 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 21¢ $1 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 21¢ $1 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 21¢ $2 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 21¢ $2 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 21¢ $0 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 21¢ $1 2h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Memphis Grizzlies in 2026-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Detroit Pistons in 2026-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-2 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the New Orleans Pelicans in 2026-2 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Iraq be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Iraq be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Iraq be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $619.47 · official $430.87 · 3500 history records