Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:14:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3dd6…0a5b other 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%46W / 68L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$15
14 days+$11
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% +$3
world 33% +$15
other 27% −$7
politics 3% +$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% +$9
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.9% -7.8% 71% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 23 +0.5% -9.1% 39% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 36 +1.7% -8.0% 44% 3% -9.3%
all 114 -2.4% -11.7% 40% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 2% -9.3%
10% -20.2% 1% -18.0%
15% -27.9% 1% -25.9%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses46 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage466d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 87¢ 87¢ $157 $157 +$0 (+0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 38¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $424 +$7 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 +6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $288 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $143 +$2 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $279 +$2 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $98 +$3 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $137 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $56 −$5 -9%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $157 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $157 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $157 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $157 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $313 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $449 +$1 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $59 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $101 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $462 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $75 +$2 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $139 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $162 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $141 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $6 $0 +5%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $152 $0 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 27 $111 +$1 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $73 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $68 +$4 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $24 +$9 +38%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $776 +$2 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,956 −$5 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $673 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $954 +$3 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $72 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 15 $36 +$2 +6%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $937 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 15 $7 $0 +1%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 15 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 24 $9 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $7 $0 +2%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 09 $3 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $49 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $108 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $12 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $161 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $159 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $12 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $132 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $22 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $122 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $144 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $144 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $89 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $143 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $143 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $140 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $101 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $98 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $137 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $137 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $86 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $66 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $152 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $124 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.93 · official $156.60 (match) · 401 history records