Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:17:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3D 0x3dd6…24f8 politics 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$946per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$8
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 89% −$34
other 7% −$2
world 3% −$1
economics 1% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 29 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 29 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$990) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage65d
Avg bet$946
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $906 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $906 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,829 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $908 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $919 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $915 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $918 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $924 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $925 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $934 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 08 $930 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $931 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 04 $152 −$49 -32%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $983 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $990 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 26 $991 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $992 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $993 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $994 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $995 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $996 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $906 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $906 24h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $905 2d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $906 4d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $907 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $908 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $908 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $909 9d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $907 10d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $908 11d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $909 15d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $911 16d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $915 17d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $916 18d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $912 19d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $913 20d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $918 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $919 22d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $913 24d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $915 25d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $917 26d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $918 26d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $919 28d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $921 28d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $921 30d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $923 31d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $923 32d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $924 32d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $923 34d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $925 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records