Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:26:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3D 0x3dd8…1f6b crypto 197 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%103W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$39
14 days−$28
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$69
other 36% +$45
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -25.0% -32.2% 49% 37% -0.3%
≤30d 197 -12.3% -20.6% 52% 41% -10.5%
≤90d 197 -12.3% -20.6% 52% 41% -10.5%
all 197 -12.3% -20.6% 52% 41% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 41% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 28% -19.1%
15% -35.2% 20% -26.9%
20% -41.5% 14% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses103 / 94
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)197 / 197
History coverage24d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 197 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $75 +$39 +53%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $67 +$17 +26%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $1 $0 -12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $72 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +67%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +43%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $72 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -91%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +37%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $7 +$2 +29%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$6 +118%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$2 +45%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$6 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -30%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -78%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $75 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 91¢ $75 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 8h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 11h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 12h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 12h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 12h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $81 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $16 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $6 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 555 history records