Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3dda…8799 sports 259 markets active 2h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$500 (+1%) realized +$164 · open +$336
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate66%167W / 87L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$12,098now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 85% +$1,555
sports 9% −$165
other 6% −$263
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 244 -7.3% -16.1% 66% 66% -17.3%
all 254 -6.8% -15.7% 66% 64% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 64% -7.9%
10% -23.7% 63% -16.7%
15% -31.1% 46% -24.8%
20% -37.9% 7% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$36 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$12,098
Realized+$164
Unrealized+$336
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses167 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions5
Markets (closed)254 / 259
History coverage604d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 68¢ 78¢ $4,300 $4,951 +$651 (+15%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $3,480 $3,389 −$91 (-3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 52¢ $2,325 $2,138 −$187 (-8%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $1,110 $1,295 +$185 (+17%)
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 72¢ 42¢ $548 $325 −$223 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fluminense FC vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw? Apr 14 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Red Bull Bragantino end in a draw? Apr 13 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Atlético San Luis end in a draw? Apr 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will São Bernardo FC vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw? Apr 13 $20 +$9 +43%
Will América FC vs. Grêmio Novorizontino end in a draw? Apr 13 $20 +$9 +47%
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? Apr 13 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Athletic Club vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? Apr 13 $20 +$9 +46%
Will SC Braga vs. FC Arouca end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$8 +42%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Randers FC vs. FC København end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$9 +43%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Cádiz CF vs. FC Andorra end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$10 +48%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Operário Ferroviário EC vs. Cuiabá EC end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will CA Paranaense vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw Apr 12 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Brøndby IF vs. FC Midtjylland end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Botafogo FR vs. Coritiba FBC end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will CD Mirandés vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sønderjyske Fodbold vs. Viborg FF end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$9 +43%
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$8 +42%
Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$9 +43%
Will OGC Nice vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Perth Glory FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Göztepe SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Kawasaki Frontale vs. Kashima Antlers end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Sagan Tosu end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Fukushima United FC vs. Iwaki FC end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Roasso Kumamoto vs. Tegevajaro Miyazaki end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Blaublitz Akita vs. Shōnan Bellmāre end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will NEC vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will PEC Zwolle vs. SBV Excelsior end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will CA Osasuna vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Fortuna Sittard vs. NAC Breda end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Querétaro FC vs. Club Necaxa end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Ceará SC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Tigres de la UANL vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Tōkyō Verdy end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Zweigen Kanazawa vs. FC Imabari end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will CF América vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Apr 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $968 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $2,014 1h
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 SELL No 52¢ $2 1h
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 SELL No 52¢ $23 1h
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 SELL No 55¢ $2,895 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $166 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $342 2h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 58¢ $3,538 24h
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 BUY No 74¢ $1,000 64d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the BUY Yes 70¢ $1,000 64d
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 BUY No 73¢ $100 64d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the BUY Yes 68¢ $100 64d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the BUY Yes 67¢ $400 66d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the BUY Yes 67¢ $200 66d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the BUY Yes 65¢ $400 66d
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 BUY No 72¢ $347 68d
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 BUY No 71¢ $2,000 69d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the BUY Yes 71¢ $100 69d
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 BUY No 70¢ $1,000 69d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the BUY Yes 71¢ $100 69d
Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Atlético San Luis end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $20 77d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw? BUY No 63¢ $20 77d
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Red Bull Bragantino end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $20 77d
Will Operário Ferroviário EC vs. Cuiabá EC end in a draw? BUY No 65¢ $20 77d
Will América FC vs. Grêmio Novorizontino end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $20 77d
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $20 77d
Will Athletic Club vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $20 77d
Will Botafogo FR vs. Coritiba FBC end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $20 77d
Will São Bernardo FC vs. Fortaleza EC end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $20 77d
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $20 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,098.42 · official $12,057.90 (match) · 456 history records