Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3ddf…4063 crypto 635 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (176 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,880 (+12%) realized +$2,883 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%353W / 281L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day175.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$292
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (176 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 441 -39.7% -45.5% 36% 36% -38.8%
≤30d 634 +3.9% -6.0% 56% 55% -8.4%
≤90d 634 +3.9% -6.0% 56% 55% -8.4%
all 634 +3.9% -6.0% 56% 55% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover175.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 55% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 54% -17.2%
15% -23.2% 48% -25.2%
20% -30.7% 43% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$35 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$2,883
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses353 / 281
Open positions1
Markets (closed)634 / 635
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day175.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 634 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 54¢ 50¢ $39 $37 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$23 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$75 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$12 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$56 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$70 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $82 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$27 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$12 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $81 +$35 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$22 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$16 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$14 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$17 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $122 −$30 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$26 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$14 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$12 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$17 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$24 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$19 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$37 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$13 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$37 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$20 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$22 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$36 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $108 +$124 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $61 −$53 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $143 +$16 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $61 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $82 +$31 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $20 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $20 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $20 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $22 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $20 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $20 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $20 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 15m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.77 · official $36.77 (match) · 3500 history records