Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:47:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3ddf…5c37 other 436 markets active 3d ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (110 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$714 (+16%) realized +$713 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate36%158W / 277L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day110.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$102
30 days+$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 60% +$59
other 28% +$203
tech 6% +$205
crypto 4% +$1
sports 2% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (110 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +7.3% -2.9% 50% 50% +3.5%
≤30d 313 +12.3% +1.6% 39% 31% -5.6%
≤90d 435 +18.8% +7.5% 36% 30% -0.7%
all 435 +18.8% +7.5% 36% 30% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover110.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.5% 30% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here -2.8% 26% -10.2%
15% -12.2% 21% -18.9%
20% -20.8% 17% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$713
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses158 / 277
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)435 / 436
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day110.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 435 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $199 $200 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 26 $0 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 23 $1 $0 +15%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.50 in June? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $3.00 end of June? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -88%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $49-$56 in June? Jun 22 $0 $0 -4%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $480 in June? Jun 22 $0 $0 -69%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in June? Jun 22 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +54%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $450 end of June? Jun 22 $0 $0 -22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $42-$49 in June? Jun 22 $0 $0 -36%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in June? Jun 22 $10 −$4 -40%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $50 on the final trading day of June 2 Jun 22 $0 +$1 +34152%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +171%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? Jun 22 $1 $0 -10%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in June? Jun 22 $0 $0 -40%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? Jun 22 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? Jun 22 $1 +$3 +422%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? Jun 22 $1 $0 +33%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June? Jun 22 $0 $0 -81%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in June? Jun 22 $8 −$4 -54%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? Jun 22 $1 +$3 +265%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of June 202 Jun 22 $2 $0 -20%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $144 in June? Jun 22 $0 $0 +815%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $525 in June? Jun 22 $15 −$8 -52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? Jun 22 $0 $0 -36%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in June? Jun 22 $3 −$2 -67%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $810 in June? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 in June? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $510 in June? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $210 in June? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in June? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June? Jun 22 $2 $0 +18%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.50 in June? Jun 22 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,400 on the final trading day of June 202 Jun 22 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? Jun 22 $1 $0 -56%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $450 in June? Jun 22 $1 $0 -82%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $95 on the final trading day of June 2026 Jun 22 $12 −$5 -42%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in June? Jun 22 $8 −$5 -64%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $296 in June? Jun 22 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $495 in June? Jun 22 $12 −$4 -36%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,800 on the final trading day of June 202 Jun 22 $1 +$1 +94%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $140 on the final trading day of June 202 Jun 22 $2 +$1 +72%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $55 on the final trading day of June 2 Jun 22 $1 $0 -26%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of June 202 Jun 22 $6 −$4 -63%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $740 in June? Jun 22 $13 −$3 -26%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $160 in June? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -82%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $100 on the final trading day of June 202 Jun 22 $10 −$5 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.50 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $3.00 end of June? SELL No 0¢ $0 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $199 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $49-$56 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $480 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $450 end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $42-$49 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $50 on the final trading day of June 2 SELL No 0¢ $0 7d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2 SELL No 7¢ $0 7d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of June 202 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $144 in June? SELL Yes 74¢ $0 7d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $525 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $810 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.91 · official $199.91 (match) · 3500 history records