Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:19:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3ddf…c80d crypto 168 markets active 0h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,448 (+6%) realized +$1,446 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%73W / 91L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$16
14 days−$66
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$403
world 27% +$1,049
other 2% −$152
sports 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +6.9% -3.2% 55% 55% -1.1%
≤30d 93 -0.1% -9.7% 54% 53% -14.8%
≤90d 129 -6.9% -15.8% 47% 44% -4.2%
all 164 -10.1% -18.7% 45% 42% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 42% -4.9%
10% -26.5% 41% -14.0%
15% -33.6% 38% -22.3%
20% -40.1% 37% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -22% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$38 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$1,446
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses73 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)164 / 168
History coverage134d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Down 51¢ 78¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+52%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $17 +$16 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $18 −$18 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $19 +$17 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $19 −$18 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$14 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $13 +$12 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$14 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$14 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $15 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$7 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $15 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$14 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$9 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$14 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $15 −$2 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$14 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$14 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$14 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$14 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$14 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $16 +$13 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 09 $15 +$8 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $4 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $17 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $18 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $19 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $19 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.45 · official $21.76 (match) · 321 history records