Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:57:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3de2…d073
other · 541 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$179 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$47 · open +$46
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$562
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses95 / 182
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions448
Markets (closed)277 / 541
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1028.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit49%
Chart Positions 448 History 277 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$47
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Tampa Bay Rays 1¢ 30¢ $1 $15 +$15 (+2490%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in Eli Lilly and Company? Yes 11¢ 44¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+300%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $9B by June 30? Yes 19¢ 38¢ $4 $9 +$4 (+100%)
Will Hakan Çalhanoğlu record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 11¢ $0 $6 +$5 (+1102%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 32¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+177%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 21¢ 23¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 7¢ 40¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+464%)
Spread: Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5) Liaoning Tieren FC 10¢ 24¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+140%)
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas Besiktas 74¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+34%)
Nanterre vs. Monaco Monaco 51¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+96%)
Norway leading at halftime? No 62¢ 67¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? No 53¢ 60¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $9B by December 31? Yes 52¢ 58¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Over 52¢ 58¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 56¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 49¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+104%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will Vitality drop from #1 in the VRS rankings by June 30? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+177%)
Spread: Criciúma EC (-2.5) Criciúma EC 10¢ 18¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+85%)
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 41¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by December 31? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 26¢ 27¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Karl Poling Karl Poling 28¢ 100¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+251%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas Jun 13 $3 +$2 +54%
Nanterre vs. Monaco Jun 13 $2 +$5 +192%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +150%
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Karl Poling Jun 13 $1 +$2 +222%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +126%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +318%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1 +$1 +82%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. SSG Landers Jun 13 $2 +$1 +70%
Rocha vs. Bertola: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 +$6 +1219%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 13 $0 +$6 +6465%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 13 $0 +$2 +525%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers Jun 13 $1 +$2 +242%
Test Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Match goes to Jun 13 $0 +$2 +1116%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 Jun 13 $0 +$13 +12634%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins Jun 13 $1 $0 +82%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Doosan Bears Jun 13 $0 −$1 -432%
MLP St. Louis: Brooklyn Pickleball Team vs Utah Black Diamonds Jun 13 $0 +$3 +1615%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants Jun 13 $0 −$2 -1404%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 13 $0 $0 +251%
ITF Lakewood: Oliver Ojakaar vs Kenta Miyoshi Jun 13 $0 $0 -335%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 13 $0 $0 +271%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in June? Jun 13 $0 $0 +56%
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos Jun 13 $0 +$1 +2635%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 13 $0 +$1 +787%
Will Chewy (CHWY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 13 $0 +$4 +5637%
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 13 $0 −$1 -1217%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 13 $0 −$1 -791%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -158%
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas Jun 13 $0 $0 -463%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 13 $0 −$1 -577%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 13 $0 $0 -383%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 13 $0 $0 +251%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $0 $0 +281%
Cholet vs. Paris Basketball Jun 13 $0 $0 +211%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 13 $0 $0 -300%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 13 $0 $0 +82%
Exact Score: AC Goianiense 3 - 3 CR Brasil? Jun 13 $0 $0 +1060%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $0 $0 +171%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $0 $0 +206%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 13 $0 +$1 +527%
ITF Lakewood: Iiro Vasa vs Ozan Baris Jun 13 $0 $0 -130%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 13 $0 +$1 +639%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? Jun 13 $0 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $2 $0 -20%
Will Baidu have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -46%
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 13 $19 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 59% +$32
world 15% −$4
sports 9% +$1
politics 5% −$2
crypto 5% +$3
tech 4% +$5
finance 2% −$5
economics 1% +$3
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY Yes 15¢ $2 0m
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4m
Will Memphis Depay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $4 9m
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 9m
Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 20 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10m
Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will Meta have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11m
Will Meta have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11m
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 11m
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16m
Will Meta have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 19m
Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Uruguay score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 19m
Will Mexico score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 19m
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 19m
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 19m
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 19m
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 19m
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 19m
Will Mexico score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Uruguay score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 19m
Will Mexico score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Uruguay score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+62.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 277 +79.7% +62.6% 34% 27% -5.0%
≤30d 277 +79.7% +62.6% 34% 27% -5.0%
≤90d 277 +79.7% +62.6% 34% 27% -5.0%
all 277 +79.7% +62.6% 34% 27% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1028.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +62.6% 27% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here +47.0% 25% -14.1%
15% +32.8% 22% -22.4%
20% +19.8% 20% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $562.05 · official $554.67 · 3500 history records