Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3de5…bb08
crypto · 33 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$12 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$12 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses20 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage5d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 0 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 +$5 +59%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $16 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +178%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Jun 11 $7 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 58% +$7
other 42% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 82¢ $11 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $11 40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 68¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $3 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +13.5% +2.6% 61% 52% +2.7%
≤30d 33 +13.5% +2.6% 61% 52% +2.7%
≤90d 33 +13.5% +2.6% 61% 52% +2.7%
all 33 +13.5% +2.6% 61% 52% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.6% 52% +2.7%
10% -7.2% 42% -7.2%
15% -16.1% 36% -16.1%
20% -24.4% 36% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records