trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +10.8% | +0.3% | 100% | 67% | +1.8% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +9.1% | -1.3% | 100% | 40% | +0.5% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +1.6% | -8.1% | 90% | 30% | -16.3% |
| all | 20 | +13.7% | +2.9% | 95% | 35% | -5.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +2.9% | 35% | -5.3% |
| 10% | -6.9% | 25% | -14.4% |
| 15% | -15.9% | 20% | -22.7% |
| 20% | -24.2% | 20% | -30.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | Yes | 77¢ | 76¢ | $300 | $298 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 91¢ | 95¢ | $132 | $136 | +$4 (+3%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 88¢ | 77¢ | $100 | $88 | −$12 (-12%) |
| Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? | No | 77¢ | 76¢ | $65 | $64 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Jun 28 | $120 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | Jun 25 | $206 | +$41 | +20% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 23 | $184 | +$22 | +12% |
| Macron out by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $71 | +$2 | +4% |
| Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $100 | +$9 | +9% |
| Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? | May 09 | $120 | +$12 | +10% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Apr 13 | $76 | +$43 | +57% |
| Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? | Apr 02 | $236 | −$236 | -100% |
| Will France join the Board of Peace? | Apr 01 | $102 | +$2 | +2% |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | Apr 01 | $130 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will France win on 2026-03-29? | Mar 30 | $50 | +$26 | +52% |
| Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? | Mar 23 | $51 | +$4 | +8% |
| Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? | Mar 23 | $176 | +$49 | +28% |
| Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? | Mar 18 | $50 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? | Mar 16 | $116 | +$59 | +51% |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | Mar 05 | $112 | +$4 | +4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? | Feb 28 | $50 | +$52 | +104% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? | Feb 02 | $9 | $0 | +5% |
| Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? | Feb 02 | $100 | +$3 | +3% |
| US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? | Jan 28 | $70 | +$1 | +1% |