trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 56% | 11% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 56% | 11% | -9.9% |
| all | 29 | +2.5% | -7.3% | 52% | 7% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.3% | 7% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -16.2% | 3% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -24.3% | 3% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -31.7% | 3% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $38 | $38 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 17 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 27 | $34 | $0 | +1% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | May 26 | $3 | $0 | +14% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 24 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 24 | $73 | −$2 | -3% |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 22 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 21 | $42 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 21 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | May 19 | $1 | $0 | -7% |
| Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? | Dec 14 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? | Jun 25 | $14 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Apr 18 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 17 | $29 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? | Apr 16 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? | Apr 15 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 14 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 13 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run | Apr 11 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum | Apr 10 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 09 | $15 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? | Apr 07 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will X buy TikTok? | Apr 07 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ivica Zubac win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? | Apr 06 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? | Apr 05 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? | Apr 05 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Dillon Danis win the match? | Apr 03 | $3 | +$1 | +57% |
| Will Trump say "Pork" during today's Iftar Dinner? | Mar 30 | $11 | +$1 | +6% |