Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:54:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3de8…3cde sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$714 (+67%) realized +$714 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$732
other 25% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +11.5% +0.9% 33% 33% +25.5%
≤30d 3 +11.5% +0.9% 33% 33% +25.5%
≤90d 12 +1.3% -8.3% 42% 42% +50.1%
all 12 +1.3% -8.3% 42% 42% +50.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 42% +50.1%
10% -17.1% 25% +35.7%
15% -25.1% 25% +22.6%
20% -32.5% 25% +10.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +66% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$25 · ×7.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.07 per $1 lost it wins $5.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$714
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage75d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $26 +$46 +177%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $11 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $26 −$11 -43%
Hawks vs. Knicks May 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Eva Lys vs Elina Svitolina May 25 $39 −$39 -100%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Gabriel Diallo May 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $373 +$769 +206%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $106 +$23 +22%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi May 13 $202 +$33 +16%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 13 $204 −$50 -24%
Will SE Palmeiras vs. CS Cristal end in a draw? Apr 16 $18 −$5 -27%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Liudmila Samsonova vs Coco Gauff Apr 16 $10 +$9 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 26¢ $45 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 26¢ $26 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes $26 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $11 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes $9 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven SELL Usyk 98¢ $108 36d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Usyk 36¢ $41 36d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven SELL Usyk 19¢ $37 36d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Usyk 47¢ $97 36d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven SELL Rico 32¢ $997 37d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico $77 37d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico $5 37d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico $154 37d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons SELL Pistons 77¢ $129 46d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 62¢ $51 47d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi SELL Luciano Darderi 78¢ $106 47d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi BUY Luciano Darderi 73¢ $101 47d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi SELL Luciano Darderi 90¢ $128 47d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 62¢ $55 47d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi BUY Luciano Darderi 70¢ $101 47d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $154 47d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $204 48d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Hawks 31¢ $33 62d
Will SE Palmeiras vs. CS Cristal end in a draw? SELL Yes $13 74d
Will SE Palmeiras vs. CS Cristal end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records