Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:50:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3dea…3423 crypto 516 markets active 1h ago coverage 312d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,946 (-1%) realized −$1,946 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate71%364W / 152L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$411per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$153
14 days−$153
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$943
sports 3% −$1,213
world 2% +$408
politics 2% −$202
other 1% −$411
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -15.0% -23.1% 67% 17% -13.5%
≤30d 18 -15.0% -23.1% 67% 17% -13.5%
≤90d 433 -15.2% -23.3% 70% 18% -12.7%
all 516 -8.2% -16.9% 71% 24% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 24% -10.5%
10% -24.9% 17% -19.1%
15% -32.1% 11% -26.9%
20% -38.8% 8% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$559) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$97 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

312d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,946
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses364 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)516 / 516
History coverage312d
Avg bet$411
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 516 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $701 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$10 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $294 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $501 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $201 +$9 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $81 −$80 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $90 +$3 +3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$201 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $118 +$129 +109%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $78 −$33 -43%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $104 +$92 +89%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $72 +$32 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 23 $940 −$940 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 23 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 23 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 23 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 23 $944 +$22 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 22 $934 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 22 $924 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 22 $400 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 22 $890 +$17 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 22 $866 +$24 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 22 $291 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 22 $849 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 22 $816 +$33 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 22 $504 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 22 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 22 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 22 $260 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 22 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 22 $720 +$36 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 22 $588 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 22 $775 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 22 $200 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 22 $300 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 22 $752 +$14 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $261 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $33 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $501 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $46 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $81 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $10 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 63¢ $93 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $202 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $90 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $45 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $118 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $78 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 70¢ $193 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $48 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $56 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $72 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $27 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1977 history records