Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3D 0x3ded…fbcd crypto 503 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (197 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$93 (-0%) realized −$129 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate43%157W / 208L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day196.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$4,967now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$4,874
other 2% −$81
finance 0% +$5
tech 0% +$80
sports 0% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (197 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 211 -26.5% -33.5% 34% 20% -15.2%
≤30d 365 +36.2% +23.2% 43% 25% +4.9%
≤90d 365 +36.2% +23.2% 43% 25% +4.9%
all 365 +36.2% +23.2% 43% 25% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover196.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.2% 25% +4.9%
10% ← realistic here +11.4% 18% -5.1%
15% +0.6% 15% -14.3%
20% -9.2% 12% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +113% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$13 · ×3.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.83 per $1 lost it wins $2.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$4,967
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses157 / 208
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions148
Markets (closed)365 / 503
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$63
Trades / day196.9
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 148 History 365 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $510 $506 −$4 (-1%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 30¢ 56¢ $103 $195 +$92 (+89%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Yes 32¢ 40¢ $131 $161 +$30 (+23%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Yes 84¢ 62¢ $186 $139 −$47 (-25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? No 81¢ 66¢ $166 $134 −$32 (-19%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? No 17¢ 38¢ $56 $120 +$65 (+116%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? No 91¢ 99¢ $91 $99 +$8 (+9%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 19? No 90¢ 99¢ $90 $99 +$8 (+9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? No 88¢ 90¢ $95 $97 +$3 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? No 90¢ 96¢ $90 $96 +$6 (+6%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 18? No 89¢ 90¢ $92 $92 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? No 75¢ 90¢ $76 $91 +$15 (+19%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? No 97¢ 99¢ $88 $90 +$2 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? No 63¢ 80¢ $68 $88 +$19 (+28%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 18? No 85¢ 85¢ $87 $87 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 18? No 95¢ 95¢ $86 $86 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? No 64¢ 84¢ $66 $85 +$20 (+30%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? No 97¢ 100¢ $82 $85 +$3 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Yes 88¢ 85¢ $88 $85 −$3 (-4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? Yes 24¢ 34¢ $54 $79 +$25 (+47%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 19? No 81¢ 77¢ $81 $77 −$4 (-5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Yes 91¢ 89¢ $78 $77 −$2 (-2%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? Yes 38¢ 47¢ $61 $75 +$14 (+23%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 90¢ 86¢ $78 $75 −$4 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +35%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +70%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 17? Jun 17 $68 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $180 −$22 -12%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 17? Jun 17 $113 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $631 +$17 +3%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 16? Jun 17 $13 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? Jun 17 $106 +$53 +50%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 16? Jun 17 $42 −$10 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$3 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $108 +$13 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $85 +$15 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $145 +$52 +36%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 16? Jun 16 $130 +$6 +4%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$9 +22%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $477 −$97 -20%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 16? Jun 16 $52 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$6 +33%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 17? Jun 16 $0 $0 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 17? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 24m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 24m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $90 24m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 4¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $69 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $91 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 41¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 30¢ $22 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 34¢ $37 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 95¢ $67 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY No 2¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 19? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 19? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? BUY No 2¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? BUY No 1¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? BUY Yes 93¢ $8 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? BUY Yes 93¢ $13 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,967.46 · official $4,967.53 (match) · 3500 history records