Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3ded…1b7f crypto 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$100 (+9%) realized +$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%30W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day36.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -8.0% -16.7% 37% 37% -3.5%
≤30d 82 -8.0% -16.7% 37% 37% -3.5%
≤90d 82 -8.0% -16.7% 37% 37% -3.5%
all 82 -8.0% -16.7% 37% 37% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 37% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 37% -12.8%
15% -32.0% 37% -21.2%
20% -38.7% 37% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$13 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses30 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage3d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day36.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$13 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $38 +$73 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $125 +$136 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$24 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$20 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$51 +321%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $37 +$66 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $162 −$155 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $78 −$75 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $261 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records