Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3dee…91b1 other 69 markets active 6d ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+4%) realized +$36 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate75%39W / 13L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$6
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% +$6
crypto 19% +$9
world 15% +$3
finance 13% +$11
economics 10% $0
politics 10% +$4
tech 3% +$5
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 +7.0% -3.2% 77% 23% -3.1%
≤90d 28 +9.2% -1.2% 86% 32% -1.6%
all 52 -1.9% -11.3% 75% 23% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 23% -5.4%
10% -19.8% 12% -14.4%
15% -27.5% 4% -22.7%
20% -34.6% 2% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses39 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)52 / 69
History coverage122d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-6%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $14 $12 −$1 (-11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 89¢ 92¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 84¢ 98¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $8 $9 +$2 (+23%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 73¢ 98¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+35%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 75¢ 96¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+27%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 37¢ 31¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96¢ 93¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 06 $12 +$3 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 06 $14 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 06 $13 +$2 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 06 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 06 $8 $0 +3%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 30 $36 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $29 +$1 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? May 20 $3 $0 +8%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $7 −$1 -16%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 20 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 20 $24 +$2 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 06 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 06 $27 +$5 +18%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 06 $4 +$4 +112%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 06 $20 $0 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 06 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 06 $17 +$2 +14%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 06 $19 +$1 +7%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 18 $22 +$3 +14%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $14 +$1 +4%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 03 $20 +$7 +35%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $30 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 03 $33 +$14 +43%
Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 22 $14 $0 +1%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 02 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February? Feb 28 $6 $0 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Feb 28 $6 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February? Feb 25 $8 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in February? Feb 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? Feb 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of February? Feb 20 $18 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February? Feb 20 $10 $0 -1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? Feb 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February? Feb 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? Feb 18 $5 $0 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 18 $3 +$1 +19%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 18 $7 −$2 -30%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 18 $4 $0 +7%
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, Feb 18 $4 +$1 +23%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 18 $15 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase February 10-16? Feb 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 10-16? Feb 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Feb 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Super Bowl LX have at least 140M viewers? Feb 13 $4 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $12 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 89¢ $11 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 87¢ $4 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 97¢ $23 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 84¢ $9 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 75¢ $7 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 11d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 11d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 89¢ $11 11d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $8 11d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $8 18d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 87¢ $11 18d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 33¢ $2 18d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $14 18d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 79¢ $16 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $21 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $27 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $50 18d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $2 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? SELL No 96¢ $12 18d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? BUY No 95¢ $12 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 90¢ $12 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 83¢ $13 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? SELL No 98¢ $20 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? SELL No 98¢ $16 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.04 · official $102.98 · 260 history records