Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:40:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3D 0x3dee…65d5 crypto 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$199 (+14%) realized +$263 · open −$64
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%34W / 40L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$152
7 days+$230
14 days+$230
30 days+$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$85
other 19% +$79
crypto 17% −$28
world 13% −$51
politics 3% +$59
tech 3% −$20
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +3.6% -6.3% 48% 48% +24.8%
≤30d 22 -1.1% -10.5% 45% 45% +21.8%
≤90d 61 +16.1% +5.1% 43% 41% +2.1%
all 74 +12.6% +1.8% 46% 45% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 45% +4.5%
10% -7.9% 41% -5.5%
15% -16.8% 36% -14.7%
20% -25.0% 30% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$9 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$263
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses34 / 40
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage94d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 42¢ $170 $106 −$64 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $18 +$19 +103%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $89 +$80 +89%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 −$56 -55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $89 +$58 +65%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -77%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $51 +$28 +56%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $22 +$19 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $32 +$19 +59%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$2 -37%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -61%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$2 -48%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $24 +$26 +107%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 13 $5 +$11 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 13 $5 −$2 -47%
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 09 $5 +$5 +90%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 07 $5 +$1 +29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 06 $35 −$35 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 05 $10 −$1 -13%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 26 $26 −$2 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $50 −$46 -92%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Apr 24 $5 +$4 +78%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Apr 17 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Trump attend UFC 327? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $5 +$86 +1900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 05 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 05 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +40%
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 05 $5 +$6 +122%
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Apr 05 $40 −$20 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 30 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 24 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 24 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 24 $5 +$6 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $172 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $17 2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $37 2h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $18 2h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $169 2h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $89 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 31¢ $45 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $101 6h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $2 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $89 24h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 24h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $79 25h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $51 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 32h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $52 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $22 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $32 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 29¢ $3 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $2 3d
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals SELL Yes $0 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Over 11¢ $3 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $51 4d
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 4d
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.25 · official $108.75 · 136 history records