Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:02:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3D 0x3def…bd39 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$3
other 19% −$1
politics 7% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 20 -6.5% -15.4% 20% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 20 -6.5% -15.4% 20% 0% -10.3%
all 33 -3.6% -12.7% 36% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -10.0%
10% -21.1% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage454d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $62 −$1 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $33 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $18 −$2 -13%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $32 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $73 +$2 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $33 −$3 -10%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $33 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $35 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $36 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -10%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $14 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2600 and $2700 on June 11 at 5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? May 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 25 $14 $0 +2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $32 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $24 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $32 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $29 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $29 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $6 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $3 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $9 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $24 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $13 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $16 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $31 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $12 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $5 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $30 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $2 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $28 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $20 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $18 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $8 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records