Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:05:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3df3…aaff other 5 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-22%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -30.3% -37.0% 20% 20% -35.4%
≤30d 5 -30.3% -37.0% 20% 20% -35.4%
≤90d 5 -30.3% -37.0% 20% 20% -35.4%
all 5 -30.3% -37.0% 20% 20% -35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.0% 20% -35.4%
10% -43.0% 20% -41.6%
15% -48.5% 20% -47.3%
20% -53.6% 20% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$33 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $52 +$28 +53%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $104 −$20 -19%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $52 −$29 -57%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $52 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $103 −$31 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 18¢ $79 37h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 7¢ $42 37h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? SELL Yes 1¢ $23 37h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 38h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 15¢ $72 38h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $52 39h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 7¢ $42 39h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 39h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $52 39h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $103 40h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $104 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records