Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

3D 0x3df6…7ccb sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$1 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +344% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +270% what you keep after slip

Net edge+270%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day12.0pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+301.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+343.7%	+301.4%	100%	100%	+301.4%
≤30d	1	+343.7%	+301.4%	100%	100%	+301.4%
≤90d	1	+343.7%	+301.4%	100%	100%	+301.4%
all	1	+343.7%	+301.4%	100%	100%	+301.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+301.4%	100%	+301.4%
10%	+263.0%	100%	+263.0%
15%	+227.9%	100%	+227.9%
20%	+195.8%	100%	+195.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +344% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +344% · $-wt +344% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$35 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$47

Realized+$1

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions5

Markets (closed)1 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day12.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Yes	28¢	28¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Yes	23¢	22¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$9	$9	−$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	23¢	22¢	$9	$9	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 22	$10	+$35	+344%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$9	1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	23¢	$9	1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$10	1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? AND Will Paraguay vs. Australia e	BUY	5¢	$26	1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$10	1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$45	1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	SELL Yes	22¢	$9	1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$10	3h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$10	3h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$10	3h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$10	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.14 · official $72.14 · 12 history records