Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:39:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3df8…77b2
crypto · 10 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$1 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$43
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage22d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 3 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $19 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 24 $2 +$3 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 24 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 76% −$1
crypto 24% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.5% -13.6% 0% 0% -13.6%
≤30d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 57% 14% -11.3%
≤90d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 57% 14% -11.3%
all 7 -0.2% -9.7% 57% 14% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 14% -11.3%
10% -18.3% 14% -19.8%
15% -26.2% 14% -27.5%
20% -33.4% 14% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.12 · official $43.12 (match) · 400 history records