Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:13:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
3D 0x3df9…d4b5 crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 283d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$2,038 (+17%) realized +$2,038 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%34W / 32L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$976
7 days+$2,019
14 days+$1,910
30 days+$1,990
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$1,716
sports 35% +$261
crypto 10% −$103
tech 8% −$1
world 0% −$10
politics 0% +$6
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +108.8% +88.9% 47% 47% +14.0%
≤30d 26 +68.3% +52.3% 46% 42% +10.4%
≤90d 35 +46.1% +32.2% 46% 40% +10.0%
all 66 +22.9% +11.2% 52% 44% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.2% 44% +4.9%
10% +0.5% 36% -5.1%
15% -9.2% 30% -14.3%
20% -18.1% 23% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$69 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,038
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses34 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 69
History coverage283d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $144 −$28 -19%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,040 −$263 -25%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $240 −$178 -74%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $605 +$129 +21%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $133 −$130 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $219 −$20 -9%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $406 −$354 -87%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $862 +$862 +100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $666 +$286 +43%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,311 +$715 +55%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $30 +$920 +3067%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $639 +$114 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $305 +$334 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $317 +$138 +44%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 11 $290 +$28 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 09 $71 +$69 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 Jun 09 $73 +$78 +106%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 06 $148 −$113 -76%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $152 −$45 -29%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $235 −$86 -36%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $149 +$85 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 24 $6 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 24 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 24 $22 −$15 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 24 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Mar 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 24 $12 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 24 $22 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 24 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -98%
US recession in 2025? Mar 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference? Mar 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 14 $109 −$49 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 14 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 14 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 13 $50 +$32 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 13 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Mar 13 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 13 $50 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 13 $6 +$9 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Mar 13 $10 +$4 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06 BUY 13¢ $616 52m
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $116 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $776 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $507 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 24h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $57 24h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $237 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $605 46h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $133 46h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $199 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 5¢ $40 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 5¢ $1 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 5¢ $1 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 5¢ $0 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 5¢ $5 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 5¢ $5 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $406 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AN BUY 11¢ $23 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $219 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $741 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $82 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY 7¢ $216 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $862 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $666 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,311 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $216 4d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $144 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $950 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $600.00 · 196 history records