Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:15:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3dfc…94e6 world 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate33%25W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$4
other 18% +$2
politics 13% −$13
sports 9% −$3
economics 5% +$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% +$2
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 26 +0.7% -8.9% 42% 8% -8.8%
≤90d 68 -1.8% -11.2% 32% 3% -9.4%
all 76 -2.9% -12.1% 33% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 7% -9.8%
10% -20.5% 5% -18.4%
15% -28.2% 4% -26.3%
20% -35.2% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses25 / 51
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage528d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $49 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $49 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $79 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $160 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $13 $0 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $26 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $32 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $96 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $181 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $51 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $129 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $19 $0 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $10 +$6 +61%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $33 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $2 $0 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 23 $4 $0 -10%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $37 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $85 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $4 $0 -7%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $2 −$1 -23%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $73 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $57 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $45 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $2 $0 -3%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 13 $61 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $81 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $89 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $1 $0 -4%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $3 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 08 $47 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $50 2h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $49 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $36 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $36 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $6 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $34 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $3 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $43 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $49 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $48 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $12 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $8 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $7 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $14 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.00 (match) · 354 history records