Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3E 0x3e00…ba80 sports 310 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,356 (-9%) realized −$4,353 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%180W / 129L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$518est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$129
7 days+$203
14 days+$349
30 days+$439
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$4,304
world 4% −$367
other 3% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -19.8% -27.4% 67% 67% -1.6%
≤30d 6 +7.1% -3.1% 83% 83% +3.2%
≤90d 309 +3.4% -6.4% 58% 58% -18.2%
all 309 +3.4% -6.4% 58% 58% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 58% -18.2%
10% -15.4% 53% -26.0%
15% -23.6% 47% -33.2%
20% -31.1% 37% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$159 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized−$4,353
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses180 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$518
Open positions1
Markets (closed)309 / 310
History coverage81d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Philadelphia Phillies 79¢ 78¢ $223 $220 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $974 +$129 +13%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $234 −$230 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 15 $1,111 +$304 +27%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $258 +$48 +18%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $165 +$98 +60%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 03 $373 +$90 +24%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) May 20 $92 −$91 -99%
New York Liberty vs. Portland Fire May 15 $450 +$85 +19%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $72 −$72 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $292 +$58 +20%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $179 −$176 -98%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $467 +$172 +37%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $277 +$133 +48%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $718 +$104 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 05 $250 +$70 +28%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 04 $5,993 −$5,443 -91%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $177 +$113 +64%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? May 01 $212 +$83 +39%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 01 $250 +$54 +22%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins May 01 $346 +$64 +18%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $163 +$45 +27%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Apr 29 $462 −$448 -97%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 29 $235 +$53 +23%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Apr 27 $93 −$93 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $398 +$136 +34%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 26 $296 +$63 +21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 25 $177 −$177 -100%
Madrid Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Kaitlin Quevedo Apr 25 $75 +$33 +44%
Game Handicap: BLUE (-1.5) vs Apex Mission Impossible (+1.5) Apr 25 $336 −$336 -100%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 25 $265 +$121 +46%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 25 $341 +$203 +60%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 25 $75 −$75 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 24 $218 +$42 +19%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 24 $245 +$63 +26%
Shymkent: Daniil Ostapenkov vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Apr 24 $268 −$268 -100%
Stars vs. Wild Apr 24 $297 −$297 -100%
Savannah: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Jack Kennedy Apr 22 $108 +$79 +73%
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 22 $146 +$111 +76%
Savannah: Andres Martin vs Clement Tabur Apr 22 $186 +$72 +39%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $102 +$175 +172%
Kings vs. Avalanche Apr 22 $199 +$79 +40%
Madrid Open: Peyton Stearns vs Lois Boisson Apr 22 $213 +$84 +40%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $158 +$166 +105%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 22 $208 +$118 +57%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Apr 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Madrid Open: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Apr 22 $148 −$148 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Apr 22 $184 −$184 -100%
Gwangju: Alex Bolt vs Ilia Simakin Apr 22 $296 −$296 -100%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs RMD Gaming (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Reg Apr 22 $235 −$235 -100%
Gwangju: August Holmgren vs Yunchaokete Bu Apr 22 $269 −$269 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 79¢ $224 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 BUY Under 88¢ $974 31h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 46¢ $234 6d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Knicks 78¢ $1,111 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 84¢ $258 11d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Brendan Allen 62¢ $165 14d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 80¢ $373 18d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 76¢ $92 31d
New York Liberty vs. Portland Fire BUY New York Liberty 84¢ $450 37d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons $24 38d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 12¢ $48 38d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 83¢ $292 40d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Waldo Cortes-Acosta 34¢ $104 42d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Waldo Cortes-Acosta 37¢ $75 42d
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) SELL Grant Dawson 100¢ $639 42d
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Grant Dawson 70¢ $98 42d
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Grant Dawson 75¢ $75 42d
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Grant Dawson 72¢ $44 42d
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Grant Dawson 72¢ $26 42d
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Grant Dawson 72¢ $3 42d
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Grant Dawson 74¢ $179 42d
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Grant Dawson 74¢ $43 42d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 67¢ $277 43d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 87¢ $341 46d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 87¢ $332 47d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 87¢ $45 47d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 100¢ $320 47d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 77¢ $4 47d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 77¢ $31 47d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 77¢ $233 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.96 · official $219.96 (match) · 745 history records