Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:56:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e03…eb19 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$10
14 days−$15
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$9
world 33% −$1
sports 18% +$1
politics 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 12% -10.7%
≤30d 26 -6.8% -15.7% 46% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 28 -6.4% -15.3% 46% 7% -9.4%
all 37 -5.2% -14.2% 43% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 5% -9.6%
10% -22.4% 3% -18.2%
15% -29.9% 3% -26.1%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage96d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $241 −$2 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $109 +$1 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $33 −$3 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $47 −$7 -14%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $180 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $113 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $114 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $3 −$1 -18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $71 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $8 $0 +4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $114 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $206 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $132 −$5 -4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $5 −$1 -12%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $4 −$1 -20%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $106 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $161 −$1 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $158 +$6 +4%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $5 +$1 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $96 +$5 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $66 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $104 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $25 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $104 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 -11%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Mar 16 $664 −$4 -1%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 16 $620 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 15 $59 −$2 -4%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 15 $44 −$4 -8%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 15 $686 +$1 +0%
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Mar 14 $627 +$1 +0%
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 13 $688 +$2 +0%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 12 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $689 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $75 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $2 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $59 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $60 15h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $8 25h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $8 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $30 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 35h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $37 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $47 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $83 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $53 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $84 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $17 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $101 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $31 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $65 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $51 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $51 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $114 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $113 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 68¢ $20 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 68¢ $45 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 68¢ $49 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 68¢ $114 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $33 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.86 · official $75.37 · 141 history records